According to the latest Consumer Price Index, the price for food consumed at home in May showed a slight increase of 0.1% from April, after a drop of 0.2% in April from March and 0.3% in March from February. This decline follows a trend of slowing month-over-month price increases that began in late 2022.
In November, the price of food consumed at home saw a 0.6% increase, followed by a 0.5% increase in December, a 0.4% increase in January, and a 0.3% increase in February. Despite these recent fluctuations, the full year ending in May 2023 saw a 5.8% increase in inflation for food consumed at home, which, although significant, is notably lower than the 11.2% year-over-year increase reported last September.
While grocery prices are still higher than pre-pandemic levels due to supply chain struggles and labor challenges, FMI’s vice president of tax, trade, sustainability, and policy development, Andy Harig, finds the overall trend encouraging. He states, “The May CPI report reveals grocery prices continue to level off, with food price inflation relatively flat since February and significantly lower than the July 2022 peak. Particularly heartening is the number of items in the grocery store aisles with declining prices.”
Among the declining items are meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which dropped 1.2% in May, primarily due to a 13.8% decline in the price of eggs. The dairy and related products index also fell 1.1% during the month, while the cereals and bakery products index remained unchanged. Other notable drops include processed fish and seafood, which fell 2%, and pork roasts, steaks, and ribs, which fell 2.5%. Additionally, peanut butter saw a decrease of 0.9%.
However, some categories continue to experience price increases. Frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks increased by 7.4%, frozen fruits and vegetables are up 1.4%, and a range of other products saw increases of 1% or less, according to the Labor Department.
While consumers remain concerned about grocery prices due to these fluctuations, Harig acknowledges that grocers still face challenges in terms of labor shortages and transportation issues. He anticipates that prices will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels for much of the year. Nevertheless, he states, “Inflation is heading in the right direction, and FMI remains optimistic that food inflation will continue to moderate throughout 2023.”
