Worldpanel (formerly Kantar) is forecasting a significant sales surge for own-label products, anticipating that their popularity will double as Christmas approaches. Notably, sales of these goods reached £582 million in October.
“It’s important to remember that shoppers often look for great value and quality, not just the cheapest product,” stated Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel.
“At Christmas especially, people want to treat themselves. Throughout the cost-of-living crisis, we’ve seen consumers gravitating toward retailers’ premium own-label lines to indulge affordably.”
The latest market update from Worldpanel indicates that grocery price inflation slowed to 4.7% in October, as retailers ramped up promotions in anticipation of the holiday season.
During the four weeks leading to November 2, take-home sales at grocers grew by 3.2% compared to the previous year, with spending on promotional deals experiencing a notable 9.4% increase. In contrast, spending on full-priced items rose modestly by 1.8%.
McKevitt further emphasized: “Christmas ads are hitting our screens, and the race to the big day is on in the supermarket sector. Retailers are acutely aware of the financial challenges facing many households, especially ahead of this year’s Budget. They are keen to demonstrate how they provide value for money, focusing on price cuts rather than multibuy offers.”
He added: “It’s not just the Grinch who’s looking for savings—with nearly 30% of consumer spending at grocers allocated to promoted items in October, we expect that figure to increase as we approach Christmas.”
Worldpanel also noted that Black Friday week could provide a significant sales boost for grocers, particularly in online markets. Last year, Amazon was the lead destination for general merchandise, with Tesco and Asda securing second and third places, respectively.
Online shopping remains the fastest-growing segment of the grocery market, with spending on home delivery rising by 11% this month. Every retailer offering this service has benefited from increased sales.
Ocado achieved a new record share for the 12 weeks leading to November 2, reaching 2.1% and marking its position as the fastest-growing grocer for the third consecutive month. Additionally, Ocado recorded an impressive 15.9% sales growth—the highest in over four years since April 2021, according to Worldpanel.
Tesco and Lidl both saw their market shares increase by half a percentage point. Continuing its trend of double-digit growth since April, Lidl achieved a sales increase of 10.8%, raising its market share to 8.2%. Tesco now commands 28.2% of the market with a 5.9% spending uplift. Sainsbury’s recorded a sales growth of 5.2%, elevating its market share to 15.7%.
With a market share of 10.6%, Aldi also gained ground, posting a sales growth of 4.4%. Notably, spending at Iceland rose by 4.9%, outpacing the overall market growth with a share of 2.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from 2024.
Morrisons experienced a 2.3% increase in spending, achieving a market share of 8.3%. Meanwhile, Waitrose sales grew by 3.8%, resulting in a market share of 4.4%.
The convenience retailer Co-op now holds 5.4% of the market, while Asda controls 11.6%.
Finally, when looking across the broader high street, M&S grocery sales soared at the fastest rate since June, climbing 8.8% compared to last year.
