The United States, recognized as the leading producer and exporter of almonds globally, anticipates a record-breaking yield for the upcoming season due to favorable weather conditions.
For the 2025-26 season, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a nearly 10% increase in worldwide shelled almond production, estimating it to reach 1.8 million metric tons. If this projection comes to fruition, it would mark the most substantial crop since the 2020-21 season, as detailed in the USDA’s report—Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade—covering both almonds and walnuts.
The U.S. is anticipated to spearhead this growth, with expected almond output rising by 122,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. This increase is attributed to mild spring temperatures and favorable rainfall. Additionally, production will receive support from EU member countries, particularly Spain, and Australia, although their increases are expected to be less significant compared to the U.S. However, forecasts suggest that Italy may experience a decline in yields compared to the previous season.
On the export front, global almond shipments are projected to rise by 3% to reach 1.1 million tons. The U.S. will remain the dominant player, exporting 925,000 tons, followed by Australia with 138,000 tons. Meanwhile, shipments from the EU are forecasted to increase to 275,000 tons, and exports from India are estimated at 180,000 tons.
In contrast, China’s almond imports are expected to fall by approximately 25% to 100,000 tons, primarily due to reduced shipments from the U.S., although the USDA does not elaborate on the causal factors.
When it comes to shelled walnuts, China and the U.S. stand as the top producers, with projections for 1.6 million tons and 547,033 tons, respectively, in the 2024-25 season. Global walnut production is expected to increase by 3% to 2.7 million tons; however, China’s total yield may remain stable. In contrast, the U.S. is expected to see a production increase of around 100,000 tons, bringing its total to 644,000 tons.
Walnut exports are also set to rise by 3%, reaching a record high of 1.2 million tons, mainly driven by shipments from the U.S. to India, Turkey, and the EU. According to the USDA, “China’s exports surged last year and are expected to remain elevated on steady shipments to the European Union and Turkey, offset slightly by weaker demand in the United Arab Emirates and Kyrgyzstan.”
The Tree Nuts report encompasses pistachios as well, although the USDA could not provide specific forecasts due to unavailable data from the U.S. Nevertheless, it noted that global pistachio production is projected to rise by 10% to 1.2 million tons of in-shell nuts, bolstered by Turkey, Iran, and Syria. World pistachio exports reached a record high of 650,000 tons, with significant contributions from Iran, but U.S. exports dropped by 20% to 350,000 tons due to limited available supplies.
With these developments, stakeholders in the food and beverage industry should stay informed on evolving food and drink consumer trends, particularly as almond and walnut markets continue to adapt to global demands.
