Rabobank research has forecasted a bright outlook for the global poultry market, citing lower production costs as the main driving force. Despite concerns surrounding potential avian influenza outbreaks, the poultry value chains are benefiting from cheaper grains and oilseeds, while global trade has continued to thrive, hitting 3.5 million metric tons in the first quarter of 2023.
Moreover, the global supply balance has remained steady, and alternative proteins such as pork, eggs, and beef have maintained high prices. As a result, poultry products are becoming increasingly attractive to consumers who are grappling with rising costs.
Nan-Dirk Mulder, the Animal Protein Senior Analyst at Rabobank, highlighted that key markets are expected to increase their import volume due to the lower prices. He further emphasized that global feed prices are anticipated to keep declining, with projected costs for 2023 estimated to be 10% to 15% lower than the historic highs of 2022.
While the overall outlook appears positive, the report cautioned about the possibility of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in China and Brazil. Despite experiencing a 17% year-on-year increase in poultry exports during Q1 of 2023, Brazil’s importers have already implemented precautionary measures to safeguard against future outbreaks. Turkey, Argentina, and Chile have all faced trade restrictions as a consequence of HPAI.
Mulder raised concern about Brazil, particularly its poultry-producing southern states, being at high risk in the event of an HPAI outbreak occurring in commercial flocks.
For additional noteworthy news, you may be interested in reading Food Manufacture’s summary of the recent British Meat Processor’s Association annual gathering, which delved into the concept of “Meat Industry 2.0” and explored the role of automation and lab-grown meat in the future.
