In 2023, total beef volumes decreased by 1% compared to the previous year, continuing a downward trend identified by the AHDB since 2020. Despite an anticipated 1% increase in volumes for 2024, they are projected to remain 5% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
The demand for beef in retail and takeaway sectors has been impacted by cost-of-living pressures, although there have been some boosts as people return to dining out. AHDB retail and consumer insight analyst Tom Price commented, “For the year ahead, we anticipate a decrease in inflation and an increase in wages. The overall economic outlook is expected to improve, but external factors such as world conflicts could pose challenges.”
Cheaper primary cuts such as mince are expected to perform well in the retail sector, particularly if there is a resurgence in popularity of scratch cooking. However, consumers are likely to continue reducing waste and stretching their meat purchases over more meals. Price noted, “It’s hoped that a return to more normal summer weather could benefit beef burger volumes at BBQs. Targeted promotions towards key events like this could enhance sales further.”
Volumes in the out-of-home market are predicted to be negatively impacted by sluggish dining out trends in the first half of 2024 due to the cost-of-living crisis but are expected to improve in the second half with the return of warmer weather.
Cost pressures on consumers and businesses may limit demand for office Christmas parties in December, according to Price. Despite a lower forecast compared to 2023, takeaways are the only channel expected to see volume increases in comparison to 2019. The rise in burger consumption, driven by affordability, could offset declines in more expensive cuts like steaks.
Amidst cost pressures, consumers are turning to meat for mealtimes, opting for cheaper cuts and heartier dishes. The AHDB has provided recommendations for the beef industry to stimulate demand, including promoting versatile beef dishes for cheaper cuts and communicating the health benefits of beef such as B12, iron, and protein.
In the long term, maintaining and building consumer trust will be crucial, emphasizing shared values around animal welfare, environmental stewardship, and expertise in farming practices. Source: AHDB/Kantar, 52 w/e 24 December 2023.