According to Glesni Phillips, HCC’s market intelligence, analysis, and business insight executive, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a tight supply of beef on the global market in 2024. This forecast is due to reduced production volumes in Ireland and the EU, creating a demand for beef worldwide and potentially increasing export opportunities.
Data from the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) indicates that the supply of cattle aged 12-30 months will be abundant for the rest of the year, with a 2% increase compared to 2023. However, Phillips warns that the supply may tighten in 2025, as there is a 3% decrease in cattle under 12 months of age, leading to potential shortages in 2026 and beyond.
The new HCC report, part of the Between the Lines series, titled Beef Supply: Update and Outlook, analyzes the factors influencing the beef sector’s supply, demand, and pricing in the short and medium term. This includes insights into average deadweight prices for prime cattle categories, which have remained robust in England and Wales, surpassing previous year levels.
Regarding deadweight prices for cull cows, there has been some volatility, with averages fluctuating above and below 2022 levels. Consumer demand for beef remains strong, with over 80% of British households purchasing beef in 2023. Retail sales, particularly for mince, have shown notable growth, accounting for 55% of total beef sales volume in Great Britain.
Overall, the beef market is facing challenges with tightening supplies but also opportunities for export growth due to global demand. Businesses in the food manufacturing industry should closely monitor these trends to capitalize on potential opportunities and adapt strategically to changing market conditions.
