The research, released on April 11, suggests that these checks could lead to an increase in inflation by +0.15 percentage points over the next year.
According to Allianz, dairy, meat, and fish sectors are expected to be most impacted by the inflationary effects.
The checks, including physical examinations, health certificates, and identification requirements, will apply to UK imports valued at around £21bn, representing 3% of all national imports and nearly 8% of imports from the EU.
From April 30, new documentary and risk-based identity checks on “medium-risk” agri-food imports will be enforced at UK borders.
Products falling into the “medium-risk” category include meat goods like minced meat, poultry, rabbit, game, and their chilled or frozen products.
Processed dairy such as chilled milk, cheese containing raw, non-pasteurised milk, and certain types of “wild-caught fish” like tuna, herring, mackerel, and anchovy are also subject to these checks due to their histamine content.
The checks will apply to animal-based products from the EU and European Free Trade Association regions, as well as plant products from the EU, Switzerland, and Lichtenstein.
Allianz mentioned that the UK’s two-year tariff suspension, announced on the same day, could help reduce inflation and cut import costs by £7bn.
According to Reuters, the tariff suspension will cover over 100 products not produced in sufficient quantities in Britain, such as fruit juice.
However, the initiative is expected to reduce inflation by only -0.6 percentage points.
The implementation of new border checks is part of the UK’s post-Brexit Border Target Operating Model (BTOM), which was initiated in 2024 and is being rolled out in stages.
Concerns surrounding the BTOM were raised by sector representatives, with some calling for a delay in its implementation. Cold Chain Federation’s CEO, Phil Pluck, expressed concerns about the model’s effectiveness and the potential negative impact on businesses and consumers.
Worries about the BTOM’s implications for food prices were echoed by agri-food representatives following the announcement of the Common User Charge for animal and plant products entering Great Britain, set to take effect in April.
Scottish dairy group Graham’s Family Dairy highlighted the potential financial burdens and operational challenges these charges could bring to the industry.
